new PDB depositions vs. their blind AlphaFold predictions — a running test of "is folding solved?"

Worst offenders — all time

Every structure AlphaFold got most wrong, across all processed weeks. Confidently wrong first (high pLDDT, low TM), then by FRAUD score. Novel + wrong is the strongest evidence against "folding is solved".

38
total compared
0
confidently wrong
5
novel sequences
0.861
mean TM-score
PDBUniProtProteinWeekNovelty % pLDDTTMlDDTFRAUDFlag
13GM_C Q9HD42 Charged multivesicular body protein 1a 2026-07-08 58.7 82.31 0.573 0.8669 0.8212 ok
26LM_A Q13191 E3 ubiquitin-protein ligase CBL-B 2026-06-17 99.4 89.38 0.7936 0.8523 0.7117 ok
13BV_A Q99570 Phosphoinositide 3-kinase regulatory subun 2026-05-13 26.3 novel 85.43 0.6556 0.8978 0.689 ok
26LK_A Q9Y4W2 Ribosomal biogenesis protein LAS1L 2026-06-03 0.0 novel 71.4 0.693 0.7679 0.64 ok
31IC_A P43005 Excitatory amino acid transporter 3 2026-07-01 61.8 89.07 0.6357 0.7808 0.5581 ok
30JE_C P01024 Complement C3 2026-05-06 100.0 76.96 0.5775 0.7893 0.4556 ok
13BV_B Q8NEB9 Phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase catalytic su 2026-05-13 100.0 82.89 0.7996 0.8806 0.3426 ok
30KH_A Q8TD43 Transient receptor potential cation channe 2026-06-24 100.0 84.6 0.8051 0.813 0.3126 ok
27XK_R P43220 Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor 2026-07-01 99.7 88.02 0.797 0.8606 0.2378 ok
31IB_A P36776 Lon protease homolog, mitochondrial 2026-07-01 45.9 87.93 0.811 0.9207 0.2286 ok
31EP_A P36776 Lon protease homolog, mitochondrial 2026-06-17 45.9 87.93 0.8125 0.9218 0.2271 ok
13BV_D Q14457 Beclin-1 2026-05-13 100.0 88.73 0.8016 0.9213 0.2151 ok
27XK_C P01275 Glucagon-like peptide 1(7-36) 2026-07-01 96.6 76.63 0.7875 0.8275 0.202 ok
13BV_C Q6ZNE5 Beclin 1-associated autophagy-related key 2026-05-13 0.0 novel 93.15 0.872 0.9428 0.1926 ok
36CG_U O95342 Bile salt export pump 2026-07-08 51.0 86.52 0.8952 0.8183 0.1895 ok
13IO_E Q8NE86 Calcium uniporter protein, mitochondrial 2026-07-08 45.3 90.79 0.8535 0.9345 0.1765 ok
27TM_X Q13255 Metabotropic glutamate receptor 1 2026-06-24 99.5 90.34 0.939 0.9324 0.1359 ok
13FJ_A P01137 Transforming growth factor beta-1 2026-06-17 100.0 79.63 0.7649 0.7819 0.1265 ok
13ES_G P00742 Coagulation factor X 2026-07-08 100.0 88.02 0.7781 0.7773 0.0844 ok
13EU_G P00742 Coagulation factor X 2026-07-08 100.0 88.02 0.775 0.7907 0.0811 ok
13IO_A Q9H4I9 Essential MCU regulator, mitochondrial 2026-07-08 0.0 novel 84.41 0.7969 0.9348 0.0723 ok
26LK_C Q5SY16 Polynucleotide 5'-hydroxyl-kinase NOL9 2026-06-03 24.6 novel 90.78 0.9712 0.8749 0.0597 ok
13CM_G P00734 Prothrombin 2026-07-08 100.0 81.76 0.8682 0.8574 0.0541 ok
13GH_C P53990 IST1 homolog 2026-07-08 100.0 93.89 0.9664 0.9623 0.0526 ok
13GJ_A P53990 IST1 homolog 2026-07-08 100.0 94.33 0.968 0.9747 0.052 ok
30JE_B P01024 Complement C3 beta chain 2026-05-06 100.0 84.91 0.9845 0.9332 0.0507 ok
13ER_G P00734 Prothrombin 2026-07-08 99.4 81.76 0.9074 0.8883 0.0433 ok
13FL_C Q9NZQ7 Programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 2026-06-03 96.8 96.09 0.9756 0.9678 0.0338 ok
36OK_A P01116 Isoform 2B of GTPase KRas 2026-07-01 99.4 95.11 0.9746 0.9582 0.0313 ok
36OM_A P01116 Isoform 2B of GTPase KRas 2026-07-01 99.4 95.14 0.9769 0.9541 0.0309 ok
36OJ_A P01116 Isoform 2B of GTPase KRas 2026-07-01 99.4 95.11 0.9748 0.9566 0.0304 ok
36OI_A P01116 Isoform 2B of GTPase KRas 2026-07-01 99.4 95.11 0.9742 0.9572 0.0298 ok
36OL_A P01116 GTPase KRas 2026-07-01 100.0 95.13 0.9844 0.9773 0.024 ok
36OK_C P62937 Peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase A 2026-07-01 100.0 98.06 0.9832 0.9821 0.022 ok
31RU_A P11309 Serine/threonine-protein kinase pim-1 2026-07-01 100.0 97.04 0.9935 0.9749 0.0215 ok
36OJ_C P62937 Peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase A 2026-07-01 100.0 98.14 0.9873 0.9849 0.0186 ok
36AD_A P07954 Fumarate hydratase, mitochondrial 2026-06-10 100.0 98.25 0.9982 0.9957 0.0183 ok
36OI_C P62937 Peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase A 2026-07-01 100.0 98.23 0.9939 0.9862 0.018 ok