new PDB depositions vs. their blind AlphaFold predictions — a running test of "is folding solved?"

31IB_A

Lon protease homolog, mitochondrial · P36776 · RCSB 31IB · AF-P36776-F1 (v6)

0.811
TM-score
0.9207
lDDT
4.374
Cα-RMSD Å
87.93
mean pLDDT
0.2286
FRAUD score
45.9%
novelty (max id)

Per-domain breakdown

SourceDomainRangeResiduesTMRMSD Åmean Cα ΔName
PAEPAE:1-9591-959 5370.8036 4.3743.961

All metrics

Global fold agreement

TM-score (norm. experiment)0.811
TM-score (norm. model)0.4841
TM-score (norm. shorter)0.811
TM-score (norm. longer)0.4841
Cα-RMSD (Å)4.374
backbone-RMSD (Å)4.366
all-atom-RMSD (Å)4.563
core-RMSD (Å)1.386
core fraction0.236
GDT_TS42.64
GDT_HA18.25
MaxSub0.918
structural overlap (3.5 Å)0.4618

Local, superposition-free

lDDT0.9207
contact-map Jaccard0.8465
contact precision0.9084
contact recall0.9256
distance-matrix mean Δ (Å)2.649
CAD-score (approx)0.8583

Backbone & secondary structure

SS agreement Q3 (%)90.32
mean Δφ (°)13.2
mean Δψ (°)14.7
torsion within 30° (frac)0.8547
Rg experiment (Å)32.82
Rg model (Å)30.73
ΔRg (Å)2.09

Confidence calibration

mean pLDDT87.93
pLDDT↔lDDT Pearson0.7113
pLDDT↔lDDT Spearman0.5639
PAE↔observed Pearson0.6511
PAE overconfident frac0.0004
mean PAE (Å)9.448
mean observed error (Å)2.645

Context & headline

coverage of model0.56
coverage of experiment1.0
seq identity aligned (%)100.0
confidently-wrong residue frac0.3985
FRAUD score0.2286

Deposited 2026-06-05 · released 2026-07-01 · EM · 2.83 Å · closest pre-cutoff chain: 3M6A_1